The Scouts And Stats Agree Kris Bryant Is Going To Be Dope

Jay Bruce1.1.84914.3 B. J. Upton3.0.78013.8 David Wright2.0.83549.7 Jurickson Profar1.7.678-0.1 Miguel Cabrera2.0.76259.4 Even the messiah can strike out three times on his first day in the majors. Last Friday, Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ anointed savior, was called up from the minors after weeks of debate about whether he should’ve just started the season in the majors. There is an aura of myth to Bryant’s arrival, as though the stars have aligned to offer the Cubs a chance to fulfill a prophecy. Yet Bryant is still an untested prospect, and, as Cubs fans know too well, even the best prospects can fail to live up to expectations.But Bryant really is special — he’s the rare prospect that has both scouts and stats in complete agreement. Because of the unique intersection of scouting know-how and minor league data, Bryant is likely to match the hype.Let’s start with the stats. In this case, all we have to go by are projection systems, which take the minor league data of previous prospects and compare it with their MLB results to predict what up-and-coming players will accomplish. That’s no easy task — the minor league data is sparse, and performance is confounded by the effects of the league and the age differences between players.In Bryant’s case, however, the projections are so high that there is little room for doubt. No matter whether you look at FanGraphs’ Steamer (.260/.333/.498) or Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA (.265/.356/.525), all the algorithms are in agreement in their preseason projections: Bryant is going to be a fantastic hitter.1This kind of agreement among separate systems often means greater certainty in the resulting prediction. ESPN’s Dan Szymborski, who runs another algorithm called ZiPS, tweeted that Bryant’s is the best prediction he’s ever given to a prospect.There’s no mystery as to how Bryant arrived at these projections — the guy hit between 60 percent and 120 percent better than average while in the minors, depending on the level. Still, Bryant’s projection is so extreme that at one point, the developers who run the projection systems became worried. In a mid-winter Twitter consultation, baseball projection system developers compared Bryant’s projections to make sure that they weren’t out of line. There was consensus: All of their independently developed algorithms were giving Bryant one of the top hitting lines in the majors.Even so, not all prospects hit as well as their projections say they should. The computers, operating solely on minor league performance, can fail to notice fatal flaws in a hitter’s swing, flaws that can be exploited ruthlessly at the major league level. That’s partly why projection systems aren’t as good as scouts at predicting how prospects will perform in the major leagues. So, despite their depiction in “Moneyball,” scouts are an integral part of evaluating baseball players, and that goes double for prospects.Scouts look at the shape of a hitter’s swing, if he can generate power, and how easily he adapts to a pitcher’s shifting tactics. Bryant’s ludicrous numbers in the minors were no guarantee that the scouts would love the tools he used to achieve those numbers.The scouts are every bit as high on Bryant as the projections. He was ranked the No. 1 prospect in baseball for 2015 by venerable scouting organization Baseball America. FanGraphs also put him at No. 1, Baseball Prospectus put him at No. 5, and a host of others ranked him similarly. All publications praised his rare, top-notch, seemingly effortless power. As with the projection systems, a consensus quickly developed, and that consensus proclaimed Bryant the best prospect in baseball.The highest-rated prospects of the past 25 years have tended to become great major leaguers — on average. Yet there are some notable busts, players who the scouts thought were destined for greatness but who ended up falling short. Orioles outfielder Delmon Young, for example, consistently rated among the best prospects in baseball four years in a row, only to turn in a disappointing, journeyman career. Projection systems aren’t immune to mistakes, either. Once upon a time, Eduardo Nunez was PECOTA’s favorite, but he’s since become better-known for hitting a preponderance of popups. There’s no foolproof way to tell how a player will develop or respond to the challenges of the major leagues.Independently, then, each source has its share of errors. Often, the scouts will disagree with the predictions, or vice versa. Scouts might see future potential that never manifests in the majors. Or PECOTA will fail to consider a player’s unfixable weakness against major league competition.But Bryant has the approval of both stats and scouts, which is why he’s so special. Using data on historical prospect rankings2Which are generously provided by Chris St. John. and PECOTA projections going back to 2004, I looked for players who received comparable acclaim from both PECOTA and the scouts. Here is a complete list of the players in my data set who received a consensus prospect ranking better than fifth and a PECOTA-projected OPS greater than the projected league average. Kris Bryant1.7.881— Jose Reyes2.0.72336.2 The names on this list combine for three MVP awards, 34 All-Star appearances and 273.2 wins above replacement3Baseball-Reference.com version. (a statistic that measures the overall value of a player, combining his hitting, baserunning and defense). Bryant’s predicted OPS, relative to the league average, is higher than the comparable projections for all the players on the list before they entered the league.Several of the above players are potential Hall of Famers (Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Joe Mauer), while others have been merely very good (Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce). Notably, there’s not a true bust among them. Melvin Upton (formerly B. J.) isn’t a good hitter anymore, but he was excellent for the first six years of his career (just less than the seven years for which the Cubs will control Bryant).A few of these players (such as Profar and Wieters) have fallen victim to injuries. This is the kind of problem that can end the career of any young player, no matter how bright his future might be. But Bryant has yet to suffer any serious injuries, whether in the minors or in college before that.4Whereas both Profar and Wieters lost time in the minors due to injury. To the extent that players can be injury prone, Bryant has so far shown no such inclination.Bryant has won the acclaim of both the projections and the scouts. Rarely are the two in such resounding agreement. He is likely to be great, and while it may be too soon to be planning a parade, it’s not too early to begin envisioning a long period of Cubs offensive dominance led by Kris Bryant. PLAYERAVERAGE PROSPECT RANKPROJECTED OPSCAREER WAR Matt Wieters1.1.94113.6 Joe Mauer2.2.82346.3 Evan Longoria2.6.79940.0 read more

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Player of the Year not the right award for Turner

Evan Turner will not win the Naismith Player of the Year award.The college basketball award is not equivalent to the NBA Most Valuable Player award, which is why Ohio State’s junior guard will not win.There is no doubt that Turner would be on a short list for an MVP award. That can be supported by Ohio State’s record during his injury absence compared to when he’s been on the floor.However, he is not the best player in the nation. He can’t go onto a court and dominate the game regardless of what opposing defenses do to try to stop him, like other players around the country can.Turner cannot do what Kentucky guard John Wall can do with the ball by manipulating defenses to his liking to score or dish it to a teammate.Turner cannot do what Connecticut guard Jerome Dyson can do by scoring every way possible against the then-No.1  ranked team in the country, Texas.Even Notre Dame center Luke Harangody has a case to make with his 24.7 points per game, good for second in the nation.Yes, Turner is the best in the Big Ten, with the only competition coming from Michigan State guard Kalin Lucas and Purdue forward Robbie Hummel. Also, Turner should get a lot of recognition for his talent and his importance to OSU, who fell from the Top 25 without him. He will be an All-American at the very least and will most likely garner other accolades as well.For those who believe Turner should get the Player of the Year award as if it were based solely on a player’s value to his team, I have one name for you: Wayne Chism.The senior forward from Tennessee has not endured more pain than Turner, but his team endured a bigger loss than the Buckeyes.When OSU lost Turner, it lost its best player for a few games and anticipated his comeback so it could make the NCAA Tournament.In Tennessee, the team lost four of its players, including Tyler Smith, because of an off-the-court incident that involved their arrest. Soon after, the team indefinitely suspended those players.Chism picked up right where Smith left off and became the leader of the Volunteers, who went on to beat No.1 Kansas and No. 23 Mississippi since their dismissal.Therefore, the main case Turner had for winning the Naismith Award instead favors Chism. There is a lot of basketball yet to play and this could all change, but the fact is that the Naismith Award is for the Player of the Year, not the Most Valuable Player. read more

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Baseball Noah West out for season with knee injury

Ohio State junior Noah West (8) runs towards third base as he scores the first run of the game against the Lipscomb Bison on March 15, 2019 at Bill Davis Stadium. Credit: Sal Marandino | For The LanternOhio State junior shortstop Noah West will be sidelined with a season-ending knee injury, head coach Greg Beals announced Thursday. West had been a late scratch from Tuesday’s lineup against Northern Kentucky.“He is going to have surgery next week, and we’ve got to adjust our infield defense accordingly,” Beals said. The adjustment, according to Beals, will be to move freshman third baseman Zach Dezenzo over to shortstop, which is where he played Thursday. This will open up the door for freshman infielder Nick Erwin and freshman infielder Marcus Ernst to receive playing time at third base. West was hitting .284 on the season with 9 RBIs. read more

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Southgate happy for Liverpools success

first_imgLiverpool made it to the Champions League final this season and it is considered to be a huge success for the whole English football – and Gareth Southgate believes that it will lift the national team as well.The Albion manager insisted that it is always great to have some experienced players in the squad and thanks to this journey, the Liverpool players were able to gain a lot of experience which they can now use while representing their country.Southgate spoke about this Liverpool’s success as he said, according to Independent:“I think it is big.”divock origi, liverpoolReport: Origi cause Klopp injury concerns George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Divock Origi injury in today’s game against Newcastle is a cause for concern for Jurgen Klopp.Perhaps with one eye on Tuesday’s trip to Italy…“We want our players to be playing in those big matches and the experience for the likes of Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lallana and Trent in the last few months of playing in those matches that matter.”“It was the same for the Spurs boys and Man City boys – you want them in those big-match environments.”“You want them to experience winning things because then they know what it has taken, the commitment that is needed and the mindset that is needed and that hurdles can be overcome and they have gained belief from being in those performances.”last_img read more

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Tottenham reportedly set sights on Porto captain

first_imgThe Portuguese news outlet A Bola have reported that Tottenham Hotspur plot a January swoop for Porto captain Hector Herrera, whose market value stands at around €8 million.According to the same source, the Spurs would like to beat the competition from Barcelona, Inter Milan, Roma, and Arsenal, and grab the 28-year-old midfielder as early as next winter.With Mousa Dembele’s contract set to expire at the end of the ongoing season, and with Victor Wanyama and Moussa Sissoko’s struggle to live up to expectations, Mauricio Pochettino is forced to rush into the market to keep his side competitive on multiple fronts.Roberto Firmino, LiverpoolVirgil van Dijk praises Roberto Firmino after Liverpool’s win Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Virgil van Dijk hailed team-mate Roberto Firmino after coming off the bench to inspire Liverpool to a 3-1 comeback win against Newcastle United.Meanwhile, Herrera’s contract is also about to run down in less than a year, and in case Azuis e brancos opt to refuse eventual offers in January, he might leave Estadio do Dragao without a compensation fee next summer.Already established as one of the most solid midfielders in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, the former Pachuca man is known for his pinpoint passing and vision, which is the main reason Pochettino would like to see him in the Premier League.However, considering the fierce competition and Porto’s stubbornness when it comes to negotiations, the north London outfit will have to put maximum effort to close the deal.last_img read more

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Alderweireld Spurs must bounce back immediately

first_imgTottenham defender Toby Alderweireld aims to return to winning ways at Cardiff City on New Year’s DayMauricio Pochettino’s side saw their five-match winning run come to an end with a shock 3-1 home defeat to Wolves on Saturday.However, Spurs have bounced back superbly from losses this season and Alderweireld is hoping they will prove that again at Cardiff.“We have to stick together,” Alderweireld told the club website.“Of course, everyone is very disappointed to get this result (against Wolves) but we have to bounce back on Tuesday and show what kind of team we are.”In the game at Wembley, Harry Kane’s first-half strike gave Spurs the lead heading into the break.Harry Maguire, Manchester UnitedLiverpool legend Nicol slams Harry Maguire’s Man United form Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Steve Nicol believes Harry Maguire has made some “horrendous mistakes” recently, and has failed to find his best form since joining Manchester United.But goals from Willy Boly, Raul Jimenez and Helder Costa in the space of 15 minutes in the second-half handed Wolves the win.“I thought we had a good first half, second half we couldn’t get the energy from the last games, we defended, defended and then a goal against… it was difficult,” added Alderweireld.“The desire was there, sometimes it’s just the energy. Normally we’re on top of it and we’re better than the opponent but we couldn’t create a lot chances (in the second half).“Defensively they stood okay and we couldn’t get through. The second half was difficult.”Saturday’s defeat in London was also Alderweireld’s 100th league match for Spurs.last_img read more

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Gary Neville attacks Manchester United flop Fred

first_imgManchester United legend Gary Neville, didn’t hesitate to lash out against Brazilian midfielder Fred for not living up to his price tag expectations.The first season at Manchester United for Brazilian midfielder Fred has been below average, something that club legend Gary Neville has specifically pointed out this Wednesday and has stirred a bit of controversy in England.The Red Devils paid Shakhtar Donetsk a total of £50m for the player last summer with the idea that he would be essential to the club’s resurgence this season, but the reality that has struck all Mancunian fans in the face is very different to what was promised at first.Gary Neville has taken it upon himself to become the voice of all those unhappy supporters, who don’t understand why the club spent so much money on a player who isn’t top quality and has clearly become one of the biggest waste of money for the club in recent years.Many are quick to point at Jose Mourinho himself, but the relationship between the manager and vice-chairman Ed Woodward is what pushed the club to rush this transfer after the top options were rejected by the board.Jose Mourinho didn’t really have much choice on the matter, he brought the player that the club wanted to buy because they didn’t fancy spending more money than that.Neville Vs SounessNeville showing his ass here. Disappointing. pic.twitter.com/ENB7L78sgv— THE NORTH REMEMBERS. (@MidKnightGaz) November 12, 2018During The Gary Neville Podcast this week on Sky Sports, the former Manchester United player expressed his uncertainty against the Brazilian and complained about the elevated price-tag that was practically wasted during the summer because Fred hasn’t really played that much.“Fred at £50m, he started the first game of the season and he looked bright, he looked tidy – but does he look like what you would expect for £50m?” Said Neville on the podcast.“Does he change a game? Does it look like he’s going to defend your goal? Does it look like he’s going to connect back-to-front? At this moment in time, no.”“He is still developing. He’s still getting used to Manchester United and he’s coming into a very difficult position in the sense that the club aren’t the most stable at this moment in time in terms of their performance levels and the scrutiny that’s been on the club in the past three or four months.”harry maguire, manchester UnitedMaguire says United need to build on today’s win George Patchias – September 14, 2019 Harry Maguire wants his United teammates to build on the victory over Leicester City.During the summer, Harry Maguire was referred to as the ultimate…“So, I wouldn’t put it all onto Fred but you have to ask the question, where was he [on Sunday] in that central midfield?”He’s not been impressed #mufc https://t.co/qPzMfLt0Fc— Man United News (@ManUtdMEN) November 14, 2018But this problem goes a lot further than the low level of performance that the player has been showing during training sessions, this has a lot more to do with the actual owners of the club who care very little about the club’s well-being as long as it keeps generating revenue.As of right now and according to Forbes, Manchester United sits pretty as the football club with the highest revenue in the world with £581 million worth of total revenue.The Glazer family won’t change the narrative or their transfer policy as long as the checks keep on coming.This will result in many more flop transfers like Fred, because the board feels like they don’t really need to spend crazy amounts of cash in order to perform relatively well on all the competitions they play.This is increasingly frustrating for people like Gary Neville, a club legend who saw the Red Devils transform into one of the most successful clubs in football history under Sir Alex Ferguson, and are currently losing their prestige because of the terrible business they make by signing players like Fred.’Does he look like what you would expect for £60 million?’: Gary Neville claims Manchester United midfielder Fred is not living up to his price tag pic.twitter.com/Sau1H7TG1Q— Lilian Chan (@bestgug) November 14, 2018What do you think is the best solution for Manchester United’s poor transfer policy? Please share your opinion in the comment section down below.last_img read more

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Anchor Point Assault Strangulation Suspect Arrested In Anchorage

first_imgAn investigation showed Delumeau had forced entry into the house, threw the female to the ground, strangled and punched her. Delumeau fled the residence in a vehicle prior to Trooper arrival. Facebook0TwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享Anchorage Police have arrested a man after he reportedly assaulted and strangled a woman in Anchor Point on April 19. The female was transported to the South Peninsula Hospital for treatment. A warrant was requested and granted for Delumeau’s arrest. Delumeau was arrested on April 23 by Anchorage Police and remanded into the Anchorage Jail.center_img According to an online Trooper Dispatch, Troopers responded to a report of an assault at a residence on Stovall Ave in Anchor Point. A female reported Patrick Delumeau, 26 of Anchorage, had kicked in the door to the house and assaulted her.last_img read more

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